Past performance contains a hidden condition
A strong performer succeeds through an interaction between capability and circumstance. The operation may be stable. Feedback may arrive quickly. Technical expertise may carry unusual weight. Promotion changes those conditions while the person carries the same habits forward.
The former expert now works through other people. Information arrives later and with more editing. Decisions reach farther. A preference for certainty that once protected quality can become a bottleneck.
Assess the role shift before judging the person
Compare the present and next roles across scope, tempo, interdependence, ambiguity, visibility, and error cost. Then ask which operating tendencies helped in the first job because of those conditions.
The point is not to predict failure with a personality score. It is to name the likely friction early enough to test it. A 90-day trial with observable signals produces better evidence than another round of generic leadership training.